November was perhaps the most significant month of this year for the crypto industry and gave bitcoin a strong setup as investors look toward 2024. Bitcoin ended the month up about 9%, according to Coin Metrics. It was the underperformer, however, compared to ether , which advanced 13%, and Solana’s sol token, which jumped 63%. Investors found relief after FTX’s disgraced leader Sam Bankman-Fried was found guilty of criminal fraud — just about a year after the short-lived exchange’s spectacular collapse — and the CEO of Binance, the largest exchange in the world, pleaded guilty to charges brought by the U.S. Department of Justice. For many, these events allowed them to close a painful chapter of crypto history as it prepares to open a new one. If a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund gets approved soon, it could bring a wave of new investors into the market who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the industry to clean up. BTC.CM= 1M mountain Bitcoin closes November up 9% Now, traders are waiting in earnest. “It’s safe to say that the market is grinding higher in anticipation of a spot bitcoin ETF approval in January,” said Ryan Rasmussen, research analyst at Bitwise Asset Management. “There’s also the next bitcoin halving set to occur in May 2024, which is a strong catalyst for price that most people are missing as they’re hyper-focused on a spot bitcoin ETF.” “Some investors will continue trying to front-run the potential spot bitcoin ETF approval, but December is essentially a ‘wait and see’ period for bitcoin,” he said. Broad consensus is that an ETF is likely to be approved soon. Part of what’s driving that optimism is reports that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which has long held a reputation for being dismissive or unengaging with the crypto industry, appeared to make greater efforts in November by holding closed-door discussions with several ETF filers, giving them feedback and meeting with them again . November is a historically strong month for bitcoin. This is its seventh positive one out of the 11 since its inception, according to CoinGlass. December’s track record isn’t as rosy, however. CoinGlass says it has ended in the green in just four of the past 10. This year, however, it may give investors a good opportunity to buy one more dip before key events play out in the beginning of 2024. According to Wolfe Research, “all signs” point toward a near-term pullback in bitcoin’s price, though there’s plenty of upside left for it to run. November gains bring bitcoin up about 127% for 2023. Ether and sol have gained 70% and 482%, respectively, for the year. “While this is part of a rotation we often see — a bitcoin rally, followed by an Ethereum rally, followed by a rally in altcoins — it’s a telling signal for where we are in this next crypto cycle,” Rasmussen said. “It tells us that investors are interested in more than just the potential for a spot bitcoin ETF. They’re looking ahead to 2024 and focusing on other narratives [and] recognize the potential for crypto to gain a meaningful share of investor attention next year.”
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